应用Reed-Frost模型拟合一起封闭式流感暴发

Study on an influenza outbreak in a closed community by fitting Reed-Frost model

目的应用Reed-Frost模型对宜昌市一起封闭式流感暴发进行研究。方法应用确定型Reed-Frost模型拟合该起流感暴发,分析不同的有效接触率和隔离率,运用卡方检验确定模型参数。结果此次暴发共发现流感病例65例,罹患率37.4%,疫情持续1周,无重症和死亡病例。确定有效接触率为0.04、隔离率为0.89时,模型的拟合优度良好。结论 Reed-Frost模型对通过空气飞沫传播、传染期短、潜伏期固定的急性呼吸道传染病引起的点源暴发,有良好拟合效果,可应用于此类疫情处置评估。

Objective To study an influenza outbreak in a closed community in Yichang City by fitting Reed-Frost model.Methods The epidemic curve of influenza outbreak wse fitted by Reed-Frost model,to analyze the effective contact rate and isolation rate,to determine the model parameters by Chi-square test.Results Totlly 65 influenza cases were found during the outbreak,the incidence rate was 37.4%,lasted for one week with no severe and death cases.When the effective contact rate was 0.04,and the isolation rate was 0.89,the model showed better goodness of fit.Conclusion There were a good fitting effect on point source outbreaks caused by airborne droplets with short infection period and acute respiratory tract infection with fixed incubation by using the Reed-Frost model,and can be applied to such epidemic disposal assessment.