福州地区2007—2016年红细胞临床用血量分析与预测

The analysis and prediction on clinical usage amount of red blood cell in Fuzhou area

目的分析福州地区红细胞类血液成分临床用血情况,预测用血趋势,为采供血提供依据。方法回顾性分析福州地区2007—2016年临床用血情况,用ARIMA模型对10年间用血量建模,预测2017年用血量趋势。结果10年间红细胞用血增长15.1%,年均增长率1.8%;A、B、O、AB型用血分别占28.1%、24.6%、40.7%和6.6%;月均用血量10 489U,其中1、2、6、8月用血量较少;医院用血量2008年高达7.64U/床,2016年降至4.39U/床,降低42.6%;用ARIMA模型预测2017年1~6月用血量,除AB型外,A、B、O型与实际用血量拟合优度均较好,相对误差均<10%;预测2017年7~12月用血量同比增长8.7%。结论福州地区临床用血已进入新一轮的快速增长期,临床用血供需矛盾更突出,需加强采供血机构能力建设,实现临床用血供需平衡。

Objective To analyze the clinical usage amount of red blood cell(RBC)in Fuzhou area and predict the demand tendency for better blood collecting and supplying.Methods RBC supply data was analyzed retrospectively in Fuzhou area,and the data of clinical usage amount of RBC for 10 years were fitted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model and predicted by months and blood types for 2017.Results The clinical RBC usage amount increased with 15.1% from 2007 to 2016.The mean growth rate was 1.8%.The demand percentages of blood type A,B,O,AB accounted for 28.1%、24.6%、40.7%and 6.6%respectively.The mean RBC usage amount was 104 889 unit monthly.RBC transfusion amount in January,February,June and August were lower than mean value.The mean RBC usage amount of hospital decreased from the highest 7.64 U/bed in 2008 to 4.39 U/bed in 2016,decreased by 42.6%.RBC demandfrom January to Jun in 2017 was predicted by fitting ARIMA model,except type AB,the goodness of fit for type A,B and O is favourable,the mean relative error was less than 10%.The amount of blood usage from July to December in 2017 increased by 8.7% compared with the same period in 2016.ConclusionA new round of rapid growth period is coming for the demand of RBC clinical usage in Fuzhou area,the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent.The construction of blood collecting and supplying institutions and the capacity should be strengthened to realize the balance of supply and demand for clinical blood usage.