1949～2017年间西北太平洋热带气旋变化特征初探

The Preliminary Study on the Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones

本文以中国气象局热带气旋资料中心发布的西北太平洋热带气旋资料为基础,采用MATLAB、SPSS、EXCLE软件研究分析了1949～2017年间西北太平洋热带气旋的变化特征并预测其变化规律。结果表明:西北太平洋生成热带气旋总频数呈现波动减小趋势,而登陆热带气旋总数处于相对稳定状态,这两种热带气旋的发生没有显著的相关关系;热带风暴与强台风的频数有波动增加的趋势,其他类型热带气旋波动减少,其中强台风有最大频数超前发生的现象,这应与超强台风波动减少、强台风波动增加的现象有关;夏季生成热带气旋最多且活泼,冬季生成热带气旋最少且活泼性最差;高、低强度热带气旋均呈下降趋势,出现极值风速热带气旋(热带低压与超强台风)波动减少而中风速热带气旋(强热带风暴与强台风)波动增加的现象。

Based on the tropical cyclone data in the Northwest Pacific released by the tropical cyclone data center of China meteorological administration, the variation characteristics of the tropical cyclones were analyzed by means of MATLAB, SPSS and EXCLE from 1949 to 2017, and their variation rules were also predicted. The results show that the total frequency of tropical cyclones generated in the Northwest Pacific Ocean tends to decrease while the total number of landfall tropical cyclones remains relatively stable. There is no significant correlation between the two in terms of occurrence. The frequency of tropical storms and strong typhoons tends to increase while other types of tropical cyclones tend to decreases. Strong typhoons have a feature leading the maximum frequency. Tropical cyclones are most active in summer and least active in winter. Tropical cyclones with high and low intensity tended to decrease. The fluctuation of tropical cyclones with extreme wind(tropical depression and super typhoon) was reduced, while the fluctuation of tropical cyclones with medium wind(tropical storm and strong typhoon) became increased.