上海产业结构、人口、就业的互动关系研究

A Study on the Interaction between Industrial Structure,Population Growth and Employment in Shanghai

1990年以来,上海产业结构战略性调整的增长效应已初步显现。然而,随着产业结构的进一步调整,上海市政府可能将面临一系列新问题,主要是产业结构调整过程中出现的结构性与磨擦性失业问题;二元劳动力市场条件下外来劳动力对本地人员所产生的就业替代效应与挤出效应问题;外部劳动力进入所导致的上海产业"滞移"现象,等等。同时,上海也面临着是继续追求经济增长还是追求人与社会经济共同发展模式的选择。本文利用上海市第五次人口普查的数据资料分析了上海产业结构调整与人口增长及就业之间的内在关系,提出实现上海产业结构调整、人口增长及充分就业目标协调发展的战略与政策建议。

Since 1990s,the growth effects of the strategic adjustment of Shanghai's industrial structure have emerged.However,with the further adjustments of industrial structure,the municipal government of Shanghai will probably be faced with a series of new challenges,namely:the structural and frictional unemployment accompanying the adjustment process of industrial structure;the substitution and crowdingout effects of migrating labors on local residents under the condition of dual labor markets;the industrial stagnation caused by the entry of external labors,and etc..Shanghai is also faced with the choice between the goal of economic growth and the codevelopment of people and the social economy.The paper makes use of the data of 'the Fifth Shanghai Census'to analyze the internal relations between the adjustment of industrial structure,population growth and employment.Then it puts forward the strategy and the policy propositions of realizing the codevelopment between the adjustment of industrial structure,population growth and the target of full employment.