基于Maxent的入侵害虫菊方翅网蝽在中国的适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Distribution of the Invasive Chrysanthemum Lace Bug,Corythucha marmorata in China Based on Maxent

菊方翅网蝽Corythucha marmorata (Uhler,1878)是我国近年来新发现的一种入侵害虫,根据野外调查和文献记录,本文系统整理了菊方翅网蝽在世界各地的分布点信息以及24个环境变量数据,首次采用Maxent模型结合地理信息系统对菊方翅网蝽在中国的适生区进行了预测,以期为防控菊方翅网蝽的入侵和扩散蔓延提供早期预警。结果表明:Maxent模型预测菊方翅网蝽适生区分布结果准确性非常高(AUC=0.998、0.896)。7月最高温、降水量季度变化、昼夜温差与年温差比值、9月平均温度、11月平均温度、6月降水量对菊方翅网蝽的潜在分布影响较大。菊方翅网蝽在我国的适生区域较为广泛,主要位于100°~125°E,20°~40°N的亚热带、暖温带之间,集中在华中、华东、华北部分地区。地理分布趋势基本呈现以高适生区为中心向四周扩散,同时适生性逐步降低的特点。高适生区主要集中在110°~122°E,25°~32°N区域,沿长江中下游分布,包括浙江大部分地区、上海、安徽南部、湖北东南部、江西西部、湖南东部、江苏沿海地区、山东中部部分地区,河南南部局部地区。上述地区应警惕菊方翅网蝽的入侵,同时侵入地及时采取应对措施防止其进一步扩散。

Corythucha marmorata is a newly discovered invasive pest in recent years in China.Based on a large number of presence points of C.marmorata systematically identified by our long-tenn field survey and from the GBIF,along with 24 environmental variables,we used maximum-entropy(Maxent)model combined with geographic infonnation system(ArcGIS)to obtain the first prediction of the potential distribution of C.marmorata in China.It represented a new and valid method for obtaining early wannings serving to prevent the danger of biological invasion.The results indicated that Maxent model gave a high accuracy in distribution prediction for C.marmorata(AUC=0.998,0.896).The potential distribution areas were greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation factors including max temperature of July,precipitation seasonality,isothennality,mean temperature of September,November,precipitation of June.C.marmorata had a wide potential range in China,which mainly lying at latitude 25°-40°N and longitude 100°-125°E in the subtropical and warm temperate zone.It was concentrated in few areas of Central,East and North China.The geographical distribution trend was spread to the surrounding areas from the high suitable distribution,and the suitable value was gradually reduced.The high suitable distribution was mainly lying at latitude 25°-32°N and longitude 110°-122°E along with the Lower Yangtze Region,including most of Zhejiang,Shanghai,east of Anhui,southeast of Hubei,west of Jiangxi,east of Hunan,coasts of Jiangsu,central of Shandong,south of Henan.Attention should be given to the invasion and special efforts need to be taken to prevent its further spread in its distribution.