我国肉鸡市场价格波动周期分解及内在相关性分析

Broiler Market Price Fluctuation and Intrinsic Correlation in China

基于1994年6月至2015年4月肉鸡市场价格数据,利用Beveridge-Nelson分解法对活鸡价格和鸡肉价格进行趋势周期分解,提取其确定性趋势、随机趋势和周期成分,并通过VAR模型分析两者之间的关系。结果表明:我国活鸡价格和鸡肉价格存在着平稳增长的确定性趋势,但活鸡增长的趋势较大,两者均存在负的随机趋势;活鸡价格历经12个完整周期,平均周期为18.83个月,最长周期为48个月,最短周期为9个月。与活鸡价格类似,鸡肉价格也历经12个完整周期,平均周期长19.92个月,最长周期为47个月,最短周期为8个月。鸡肉价格对活鸡价格的冲击具有显著正影响,而活鸡价格对鸡肉价格的冲击主要为负影响,两类冲击作用延续时间较长;在肉鸡市场价格长期波动中,活鸡价格变化的17.35%来自鸡肉价格,而鸡肉价格变化的2.61%来自活鸡价格变化,鸡肉价格变化对活鸡价格的影响更大。

Based on price data of broiler market from June,1994 to April,2015,this paper uses Beveridge-Nelson decompo-sition method to decompose trend cycle of live chicken and chicken price and extract deterministic trend,stochastic trend and cycle components of broiler market.Meanwhile,this paper analyzes the relationships between live chickens and chicken price by using VAR model.The result shows that there is a deterministic trend of steady growth between live chickens and chicken price,but live chicken price grows much faster and both have negative stochastic trend.Live chicken price has undergone 12 complete cycles,with the average cycle of 18.83 months,the longest cycle was 48 months,and the shortest cycle was only 9months.Similarly,the chicken price has also undergone 12 complete cycles,and the average cycle was 19.92 months,the longest cycle was 47 months and the shortest cycle was 8months.The chicken price shock has a significant positive impact on the live chickens price,while the live chicken price shock has a negative impact on the chicken price.These two kinds of shocks have lasted fora long time.In the long fluctuation process of broiler market,17.35% of live chicken price change comes from chicken price,and 2.61% of chicken price change comes from live chickens price.Namely,chicken price has a greater impact on live chicken price.