中国离婚率变动对住房价格的影响研究——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

Impact of divorce rate change on housing price in China: empirical analysis based on spatial econometric model

住房作为每个家庭的必需品,与老百姓的生活息息相关,而离婚率作为婚姻稳定性的综合反映,是否会对住房价格产生影响,值得关注.基于2003年~2017年中国31个省市(自治区)面板数据,运用空间计量模型研究离婚率对住房价格的影响,结果表明:1)离婚率对住房价格有显著的正向影响,离婚率每上升一个千分点,住房价格上涨6.26%,说明离婚率攀升不仅代表婚姻市场不稳定,而且容易造成住房价格快速上升.2)依据中国房地产调控政策,进行分时段模型估计,结果表明2003年~2009年、2010年~2017年中国离婚率对住房价格均有显著的正向影响,但其影响程度呈现下降(从0.130 7到0.041 8).因此以政府为主体,对房地产市场进行宏观调控仍然是未来经济健康发展的必要手段.3)中国离婚率对住房价格的影响始终不具备空间溢出效应,即本省(邻省)离婚率对邻省(本省)住房价格影响不显著,这可能与住房价格较强的空间集聚性和房地产政策的户籍限制有关.

Housing,as the necessity of every family,was closely related to people’s life.The divorce rate is a comprehensive reflection of the stability of marriage and whether it would have an impact on the housing price is worth paying attention to.Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities(autonomous regions)in China from 2003 to 2017,this paper studied the impact of divorce rate on housing price by using spatial measurement model and the results are shown as follows.Firstly,the divorce rate has a significant positive impact on the housing price.The housing price rose by 6.26%accordingly with each millesimal rise of divorce rate.It’s indicated that the rising divorce rate not only represents the instability of the marriage market,but also easily leads to the rapid rise of housing prices.Secondly,according to China’s real estate regulation and control policies,the time-division model estimation suggests that the divorce rate in China has a significant positive impact on the housing price from 2003 to 2009 and 2010 to 2017,while its impact is decreasing(from 0.130 7 to 0.041 8).Therefore,macro-control of the real estate market with the government as the main body is still a necessary means for the healthy economic development in the future.In addition,it is also found that China’s divorce rate has no spatial spillover effect on the housing price,that is,the divorce rate in one province has no significant impact on the housing price in its neighboring province,which might be related to the strong spatial agglomeration of housing price and the household registration restrictions of the real estate policy.