财政风险与国债结构管理——从国债再融资角度的分析

Fiscal Risk and Public Debt Structure Management: According to the Refinance-risk of the Public Debt

国债风险是财政风险中的核心内容 ,控制风险的思路不能囿于国债总量的控制 ,还要注重国债结构管理所能发挥的作用。本文从国债再融资风险的角度 ,分析了国债结构管理在防范财政风险中的作用 ,并对我国国债现状进行了实证分析。最后 ,笔者提出 ,为降低我国财政风险 ,目前应该增加长期债券比例 ,形成一个均衡的债务期限。

The risk of public debt is the main part of fiscal risk. The risk can be avoided not only by controlling the amount of public debt, but also by managing the structure of the public debt. According to refinance-risk, the article researches the role of public debt management in avoiding the fiscal risk, and analyzes the situation of the public debt management of China. Finally, it is suggested that the share of fixed-rate long debt should be increased to reduce the risk, and keep the balance of the public debt's maturity.