自然疫源性疾病的风险评价——以黄鼠鼠疫为例

Environment-Health Risk Assessment on Natural Focus Based Disease ——A Case Study of Spermophilus Dauricus Plague

以内蒙古自治区赤峰市为黄鼠鼠疫疫源地典型地区,选择12个自然与人文指际,分析该地区环境变化的趋势和对鼠疫流行的影响。经聚类分析和矩阵运算,得出该地区环境-健康风险指数。在此基础上对不同环境-健康类型区的风险性进行综合评价。结果表叫,城市化的地区,或者植被覆盖增大的地区,环境-健康风险均较低,发生鼠嫂流行的可能性小;环境基本保持原自然状态的地区,环境-健康风险性较高,环境恶化的地区,环境-健康风险性最高,再次流行鼠疫的可能性大。这提示我们,改善生态环境,是降低鼠疫疫源地环境-健康风险,预防鼠疫流行的根本途径。

Plague, a natural focus-based disease closely related to the geographic environment or landscape, is one of the deadly infectious diseases being most harmful to human beings. It is very important to study the geographical epidemic law of plague and distribution of plague nature foci, and analyse their environment-health risk for more effective control of its outbreaks and epidemics. In this paper, 12 natural and social indicators were selected for the purpose of analysing the trend of environmental change and its impacts on plague prevalence, the threshold value of environment-health risk was educed through the clustering analysis and matrix operation of 12 indexes, and 4 different types of environment-health risk area were classified according to the threshold value. The character of low risk area mainly manifested higher rate of forest cover or well developed urbanization where it was unsuitable for dauricus survival anymore. Consequently, the risk of plague prevalence changed into very low possibility. On the contrary, the original surroundings in the very high risky area became deteriorating seriously, and it posed higher probability of plague prevalence. These imply that restoring the environment status in plague foci is the essential way to improve the environment-health risk and control plague prevalence effectively.