摘要
在分析宁南山区干旱气候特征及其对农业生产影响的基础上 ,借助灰色灾变理论分别建立了春旱、夏旱、秋旱、春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、全年旱等六种干旱类型的 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 2 0年的干旱气候做出预测。经对 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年预测结果验证 ,吻合性良好。此外 ,提出了宁南山区抗旱防旱的综合农业措施。研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾 ,促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。
Based on the analysis of features of drought climate and its effects on agro-production in soughern Ningxia,GM(1,1) forecast models have been performed,with the aid of gray system theory,for six types of drought climate,i.e.,drought in spring,summer,autumn,spring & summer,summer& autunm,and whole year respectively,which are used to predict the drought occurrences during 2000 to 2020.The forecast results are proved to be well coincidental with the actual situations in 2000 and 2001.Furthermore,the paper brings forward the comprehensive anti-drought farming measures for this region.The study outcomes may provide scientific guidance to drought disaster fighting and to agro-production development in dryland areas.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
2003年第1期60-64,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家"九五"科技攻关项目"96 -0 0 4-0 4-0 7"专题研究内容。
