南极地区与全球变化集成研究展望

A PERSPECTIVE OF THE INTEGRATED STUDIES ON ROLE OF THE ANTARCTIC IN THE GLOBAL CHANGE

全球变化是21世纪人类发展面临着的重大课题。近20年来的南极研究为全球变化科学的形成和发展做出了重要贡献,许多证据表明南极地区是全球变化的最敏感指示器之一。南极地区的全球变化集成研究是目前极地科学和全球变化科学研究的重要方向。21世纪,围绕全球变化,国际上对南极地区的研究正朝向具有时间和空间尺度,具有生物、海洋、大气、岩石的圈层作用、星球之间的相互影响以及人类干扰因素等集成的关键过程研究。可以预测,对南极地区的多界面、大尺度、多学科的综合集成研究,将极大地丰富和提高人们对全球气候和环境变化的了解和预测能力。中国也将在国际南极地区与全球变化集成研究中作出自己的努力。

Global change is a significant theme for human sustainability in 21 century. The Antarctic has been appearing as a most sensitive indicator in the global change, therefore the advance of Antarctic researches has made great contribution to develop the global change science and the sustainability science since 80's in last century. An integrated study of the role of the Antarctic in the global change should be paid in more intention to promote the polar science based on a need of the global change science and the sustainability science. In 21 century, Antarctic researches will be forwards to a direction of researches on key processes integrated spatially and temporally from interactions between hydrosphere, atmosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, as well as interplanetary influence and humanity impacts. It is more implication of those especially to help reconstructing the past earth's evolution, understanding present variations, and predicting future changeability. Therefore, it will greatly enhance the understanding and prediction of global climate and environment changes through establishing an integrated, multidisciplinary, multimedia, and largescale research program. In this program, China will make an important contribution.