内蒙古包头市昆都仑河降雨径流的模拟

Simulation of the Rainfall and Runoff of Kundulun River in Baotou City of Inner Mongol

将经典统计学中的多元回归方法加以推广,建立了一个混合回归模型。该模型不仅能够弥补单纯回归模型与自回归模型的不足,而且比多变量回归模构造灵活,可以用较少的参数建立较高的模型。该模型应用于包头市昆都仑河的降雨、径流的模拟,并利用观测资料优选参数,模拟结果为昆都仑水库的防洪预报提供了基础数据。

In this paper, a hybrid regression model for predicting rainfall and runoff is established based on the multivariable regression method. The model can counteract the weakness of pure regression model and autoregression model, and is easy to be established compared with the multivariable regression model. A higher order model can be established with fewer parameters. The model is used to the simulation of rainfall and runoff of Kundulun River in Baotou City of Inner Mongel. The Results provide basic data for flood forecasting of Kundulun Reservoir.