应用遥感资料预测疟疾流行趋势的可行性研究

THE POSSIBILITY TO PREDICT TRANSMISSION TENDENCY OF MALARIA BY USING REMOTE SENSING DATA IN CHINA

目的 探索应用遥感资料预测疟疾流行趋势的可能性。 方法 分别收集全国气象站和江苏省疟疾监测点的气象资料和疟疾发病率资料 ,建成数据库。在 ERDAS Imagine8.x软件平台上复合 1995年 12个月的 NOAA- AVHRR卫星资料获 NDVI复合图 ,并分别提取全国气象站和江苏省疟疾监测点的 NDVI值 ,进行相关分析和疟疾流行区域预测分析。 结果 NDVI值与降雨量和相对湿度呈正相关关系 ,R2分别为 0 .30 18和 0 .2 5 6 5 ,并发现江苏省疟疾流行区的NDVI值均 >14 0 ,以该值为基础提取出卫星遥感资料 NDVI值 >14 0的区域 ,得出了全国疟疾流行范围预测地图。 结论 为应用 NOAA- AVHRR卫星遥感资料的 NDVI值预测疟疾流行奠定了理论基础 ,应用卫星遥感资料分析技术预测疟疾分布与流行趋势是可行的。

Objective To explore the possibility for prediction of malaria transmission by using remote sensing data. Methods The NDVI value, extracted from the climate observation station in the country and the malaria transmission spots in Jiangsu, was used to analysis and predict the malaria transmission area in China based on the NOAA AVHRR NDVI images. The correlation analysis was carried out between NDVI values and the precipitation and relative humidity. The processing of remote sensing images includes the following steps: download image data from Internet, georeference and composite images, extract NDVI values which performed in ERDAS Imagine 8.x. Results Remote sensing analysis showed that NDVI value was positively correlated with both the precipitation and relative humidity(R 2=0.301 8, 0.256 5 respectively), and the NDVI values covering all epidemic spots in Jiangsu were over 140. The prediction map on malaria distribution area was created by exacting NDVI value which was over 140 in AVHRR satellite image. Conclusion It provided the theoretical basis for remote sensing data to be used in prediction of malaria transmission. The prediction on distribution of malaria in China by using remote sensing technique is comparatively precise, which provide a novel way to predict the vector borne parasitic diseases in the future.