多投资主体建设项目经济评价中的风险NPV法

Risk NPV Method used in Economic Evaluation of Construction Project Invested by Multi-investment Subject

建设项目往往投资大 ,回收期长 ,具有极大的财务和市场风险。随着建设项目投资主体多元化和融资渠道多样化的越来越多出现 ,传统的建设项目经济评价方法已不能满足实际的需要 ,对这些项目的经济评价需要一种综合风险因素的更有效方法。NPV法作为一种动态评价方法 ,长期以来广泛应用于建设项目的经济评价。基于这种方法 ,并结合加权平均资本成本法和蒙特卡罗模拟 ,提出了一种风险NPV法。

Construction project is featured by great investment and long payback period. It has enormous financial and market risk. Furthermore, companied by the phenomenon of multi-investment parties and various financing channels for large construction project, traditional construction project economic evaluation methods can't be satisfied in practice. Economic evaluation on these projects needs a more effective method that takes risk into account. As a dynamic method, net value method has been applied extensively in construction project economic evaluation. Based on it, and combined the weighted average cost of capital method and monte carlo simulation, this paper presents a risk NPV method.