灰色GM(1,1)模型最优维数的研究

Study on the optimal dimension of the grey model GM(1,1)

灰色GM(1,1)模型的维数对模型的预测精度有很大的影响,本文通过自编的FORTRAN程序,在合适的范围内对GM(1,1)模型的维数进行自动优化,通过对宁波市地面沉降数据的计算分析,得到了C和P的定性关系,确定了优化的评价标准,维数最优化后的模型能反映预测数列变化幅度的大小。

The dimension of the grey model GM(1,1) affects the prediction precision greatly.In this paper,a FORTRAN procedure is compiled to search and select the optimal dimension of a grey modle GM(1,1) in a suitable range.Based on the computation and analysis of the data of groud subsidence of Ningbo city,the qualitative relationship of c and p is obtained.The evaluating norm is decided.The model with the optimal dimension can reflect variational degree of predicted sequence.