浙北地区夏季异常高温的一种长期预报方法

A method of long-term prediction for the anomalous high summer temperature in the north region of Zhejiang

本文提出了预报浙北地区夏季出现异常高温的一种长期预报方法,采用逻辑结构形式方法来描述预报对象和预报因子之间的关系,并用数理逻辑中的命题公式来描述本文的预报问题,进行逻辑推理预报。从历史资料的回报结果和1990年的预报结果来看,效果是令人满意的。最后,对提出的方法进行了若干讨论。

In this paper, a method is presented of long-term prediction for the anomalous high summer temperature in the north region of Zhejiang. In this method, the relation of the predictand with predictors is given in the form of logical structure, and the prediction problem is described with the propositional formula in logistics, which can be allowed to make the prediction by means of logical inference. The result shows that hindcasting from historical data and forecasting used for the summer of 1990 are satisfactory. Finally, some discussions are made for this method.