试论社会预测的主客体互动反射性原理

On the Reflection Nature of the Subject and Object Interaction in the Social Forecasting

以往对社会预测基本原理的研究忽略了一条重要的基本原理 ,即社会预测的主客体互动反射性原理。这一原理是由社会预测与自然预测的根本性区别决定的 ,因而是社会预测必须遵守的一个方法论原则。本文以实证分析和理论推导相结合的方式 ,阐释了社会预测客体因应现象的普遍性 ,以及社会预测主客体之间的互动反射性现象 ,进而揭示和论证了社会预测的主客体互动反射性原理。

The nature of the subject and object interaction in the social forecasting has long been neglected in the research of the basic principle of the social forecasting. Since the principle of interaction reflected the radical difference between the social and the natural forecasting, it became the guideline in the social forecast methodology. Combining the positive and theoretical analysis method, this article explored the coping with phenomena of the subject and object and its universality, as well as its interactive reflection. In short, the reflection nature of the subject and object interaction in the social forecasting is revealed and demonstrated in the article.