区域型宏观经济模型的开发与预测研究——兼论吉林省“十五”期间经济发展前景

The Development and Forecasting Study of Region Macroeconomic Model ──Economic Development of JiLin Province in the tenth Five Year Scheme

一个地区的经济同全国的经济一样是一个整体 ,各经济变量之间存在着有机的联系 ,因此研究一个地区的经济时孤立的考察各个经济指标是不行的。可以通过描述宏观经济的联立方程模型对其进行分析 ,这样有利于研究一个地区的经济结构和整体经济水平。本文用联立方程模型方法建立了吉林省宏观经济模型 ,利用模型对吉林省经济结构以及“十五”期间吉林省主要经济指标进行预测分析 ,并根据模拟结果提出了相应的政策建议。

The economy of a region is, just like that of a state, a integral, there is a organic relationship among economic variables, so we can't research them separately, we can analyze them by founding a multiple equation model, it is convenient to research the economic structure and economic level of a region. By using multiple equation method, this paper founds macroeconomic model of JiLin province,analyzes the economic structure and forecasts the economic variables in the tenth Five Year Scheme. According to the analyses, this paper gives some advice of economic policy.