经济增长在险水平、条件波动性与经济增长态势研究

Studies on China's Country Risks,Conditional Fluctuations and Growth Trends

经济增长在险水平 (GaR)和条件标准差 (CSD)能够有效地度量国家经济风险波动的单向性和双向性。利用动态时窗和条件异方差模型 ,我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济周期波动密切相关 ,目前的国家风险状态已经体现出明显的稳定性。利用协整关系检验 ,我们发现我国国家经济风险与经济增长水平之间存在正相关的长期均衡关系 ,因此采取积极经济政策的“反周期”干预 ,所诱发的适度经济波动将有助于经济快速稳定增长。

Growth at Risks and conditional standard deviations could effectively measure the country risk volatility in one direction and two directions. By using the rolling time window and ARCH models, we find that country risk is closely related with business cycle. Current China's country risk has shown a stable trend. By testing the co-integration relations, we find that there exits a long run equilibrium relationships between country risk and growth. Therefore, the mild volatility induced by taking active anti-cycle policies could promote and keep the rapid growth.