混沌动力学模型在我国能源生产预测中的应用

Application of Chaotic Dynamics Model in Energy Output Forecasting of China

根据能源系统的复杂性以及我国能源生产的实际情况 ,将混沌动力学原理与经济学原理相结合 ,建立能源生产函数的哈维尔摩模型 ,并通过分析该模型的混沌动力学特性 ,证明利用该模型研究能源系统的生产情况是适合的 ,利用该模型对能源生产预测是可行的 通过与其他传统的预测方法相比较 ,进一步证明用混沌动力学模型进行预测优于其他预测方法 文中又运用该模型对我国能源生产总量作短期预测 ,分析未来能源生产发展趋势 。

According to complexity of the energy system and energy production in China, combining the dynamics principle of the chaos with economics principle, Haavelmo increasing model of energy production is developed. It is proved that the model is suitable and feasible for studying the production of energy system through analyzing chaos dynamics characteristic of the model. Compared with other traditional prediction methods, the dynamics model of the chaos is superior to others. This model is further used in making short term forecasting for energy production in China, analyzing the development trend of energy production for future China, as well as providing reliable scientific basis for energy development strategy of China.