绍兴市麻疹发病时间聚集性分析

Analysis of Collection on the Time in Incidence of Measles in Shaoxing

目的 探讨绍兴市麻疹发病的季节性及其变动趋势。方法 采用集中度和圆形分布法对该市1955-1964年、1965-1983年、1984-2001年3个阶段的麻疹发病资料进行时间聚集性分析。结果 两种分析方法获一致的统计分析结果,即麻疹发病具有一定的季节性。用圆形分布法求得3个阶段发病高峰时点分别为3月12日、3月24日及4月25日,高峰时期分别为12月29日～5月23日(148天)、1月7日～6月12日(155天)和2月27日～6月26日(120天)。3个阶段高峰时点经Watson与Williams检验差异有显著性。结论 绍兴市麻疹发病高峰时点后移,自1965年使用麻疹疫苗后,高峰时期缩短,发病季节性增强。

OBJECTIVE To study the incidental seasons and variable tendency of measles in Shaoxing. METHODS Taking concentrative degree and circular distribution to analysis the time collection of measles in 1955 to 1964,1965 to 1983and 1984 to 2001 in Shaoxing. RESULTS There are significant seasons in incidence of measles in Shaoxing. Using circular distribution to acquire the peak times of three stages. They are March 12,March 24 and April 25.The peak terms are December 29 to May 23(one hundred and forty-eight days) .January 7 to June 12(one hundred and fifty-five days), February 27 to June 26 (one hundred and twenty days) . The peak times of three stages are obvious difference by Watson's and William's tests. CONCLUSION The peak time of measles in incidence becomes late.Science 1965,the peak terms of measles incidence become short and the seasons of incidence become strong with using measles vaccine in Shaoxing.