摘要
基于城市快速路实时管理和控制的思路,利用观测断面的数据,给出动态预测网状城市快速路上的交通状态和任意两点间行驶时间的方法。具体做法是,依据时序列数据、状态空间模型和自回归模型进行模型参数自拟合,并且预测出将来几个时段的交通状态,然后计算出行驶时间。最后,给出应用于城市快速路网的实例计算结果。结果表明,提出的方法可以用于预测路网上的交通状态和行驶时间,并为城市快速路的信息服务和交通诱导提供一种方法。
Forecast models of traffic state and route travel time between optional two points on urban expressway network is used based on real time traffic management and traffic control concept and observed traffic data in this paper. First,observed series data will be used to decide parameters of state space model and auto-regressive model. Secondly,traffic state of several stage will be forecasted,and route travel time will be calculated with those models. Finally,calculated results will also be given in this paper. Proposed models can be used to forecast traffic state and route travel time on urban expressway network. A basic method will be also proposed for traffic information service and travel route navigation on urban expressway network.
出处
《土木工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第1期16-20,共5页
China Civil Engineering Journal
