台湾经济开放度和收入差距之间的关系分析——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证研究

The Study on the Relationship Between Economic Openness and Income Inequality in Taiwan——an Empirical Research Based on ARDL-ECM Model

一直以来,台湾经济以出口为导向,经济迅猛发展,1979年跃居"亚洲四小龙"之首。但是,20世纪90年代以来随着台湾对外开放程度提高,收入差距也进一步扩大。为探究对外开放程度对台湾收入差距是否有影响以及影响程度大小,本文首先利用因子分析法构建台湾经济开放度指标,然后基于台湾1990-2011年的季度数据,利用ARDL-ECM模型分析台湾经济开放度和收入差距之间的关系。研究结果表明,经济开放度的提高有利于收入差距的缩小,但其影响程度较小;并且,当经济受到外部冲击之后,系统恢复到长期均衡的速度较慢。因此,若要改善台湾收入分配状况,在坚持对外开放的同时,必须采取其他措施。

For a long time,Taiwan's economy is export-oriented and has rapid development.In 1979,Taiwan ranked the first one of the 'Four Asian Tigers'.However,with the development of economic openness in Taiwan since the 1990 s,income gap is widening.In order to explore whether the economic openness have impact on the income gap,as well as the extent of the impact,this paper builds economic openness indicators by using factor analysis firstly.Then,the ARDL-ECM Model is used to establish the relationship between economic openness and income inequality based on quarterly data from 1990 to 2011.The study shows that the improvement of economic openness is helpful to narrow the income gap,but the impact is small.And when the economy is shocked,the system returning to long-run equilibrium is slow.Therefore,in order to improve the income distribution in Taiwan,we should adhere to the opening-up policy and take other measures at the same time.