从上市公司绩效看中国经济增长的可持续性

Sustainability of Chinese Economic Growth as Shown by the Performances of Listed Companies

本文对近年来中国经济增长速度及其与企业微观绩效之间的关系进行了理论和实证性的分析。研究结果表明,首先,我国近年来的经济增长数据基本可靠,Rawski(2001)等人对中国经济增长速度的质疑大部分都是站不住脚的;第二,我国宏观和微观经济之间并不存在本质性的背离,所谓“悖论”之说缘于错误地将经济规模指标与盈利指标相比较,错误地将净资产收益率等盈利指标等同于企业经营绩效,无视资本成本的变化。研究表明,我国经济增长的基本特征是:规模快速增长、企业盈利水平下降、企业绩效(资本盈利和资本成本之差)提高。我国企业在盈利能力下降的情况下还能维持持续的增长,主要得益于资本成本的下降。最后,中国经济的增长能否继续如现状持续下去,很大程度上取决于资本成本能否继续下降。

This paper makes theoretical and demonstrative analysis to the economic growth speed of China in the recent years and to its relation with microcosmic performance of enterprises. The research results show that: firstly, the data of economic growth of China in recent years are basically trusty, and most of the questions about the economic growth speed of China put forward by Rawski(2001) and others are untenable; Secondly, no essential deviation between macroeconomy and microeconomy exists in China. The so-called “Paradox” is due to the improper comparison of index of economic scale with profits index and improper equation of earnings yield of net capitals and other profits indexes with business performances of enterprises with no regard to the changes of capital. Research shows that the basic characters of economic growth of China are the rapid expansion of scale, the drop of profit level of enterprises, and the increase of enterprises performances (the imbalance between capital profit and capital cost). The sustaining growth of enterprises in China under the condition of drop of profit capacity from the drop of capital costs. Lastly, whether the economic growth of China can go on as it does presently largely lies on whether the capital costs can decrease continuously.