导弹落点精度评估的仿真分析

Simulation Analysis on the Accuracy Assessment of Missile Fall Points

导弹的落点精度(以圆概率偏差表征)是一项重要的战术技术指标。论文给出了一种评估落点精度的方法,计算了犯两类错误的概率,并且指出这种方法还可以序贯进行,节省试验次数。同时,由于飞行试验往往是特殊弹道,讨论了弹道折合误差对评估方案的影响。如果要限制犯两类错误的概率(研制方风险和使用方风险),则必须对弹道折合误差提出较高的要求。仿真算例表明,论文提出的评估方法简单有效,在工程实践中具有应用价值。

The accuracy of the fall points is one of the important performance indexes of missile systems. A novel approach is given to assess the accuracy of the fall points in this paper, and the type I and type II error probabilities are calculated. Meanwhile the approach can be used sequentially, and can reduce the testing numbers. Besides, because the flight tests always adopt especial trajectory, the influence of the error of trajectory transform on the assessment plan is also considered. If producer抯 risk and consumer抯 risk need be restricted, it is necessary to reduce the error of trajectory transform. The simulation shows that the approach proposed in this paper is reasonable and simple to implement, which is a promising method in engineering practice.