新疆棉花生产区域评估系统研究

Study on Cotton Production Regional Assessment System of Xinjiang

棉花生产区域模拟评估系统由数据库、模拟模型、空间分析与表达等部分组成 ,以棉花生长模拟模型为核心。模拟模型为光能利用模型 ,考虑光合生产、干物质分配、叶面积动态、产量形成等 ,并考虑天气、土壤、品种、管理措施的影响。模型模拟的干物质生长动态、叶面积动态与实际较接近 ,模拟莎车田间试验皮棉产量的平均拟合指数为 0 .93。模拟 1991～ 1996年区域代表地点的皮棉单产和区域平均单产的偏斜率分别为 - 0 .3%和- 2 .4 % 。

The cotton production regional assessment system for Xinjiang is developed to assess the effects of Climate on cotton yield. The system consists of database, simulation model, spatial analysis and map display. The simulation model is the core of this system. The simulation model is based on light energy use, and it contains photosynthetic production, distribution of dry matter, leaf area growth, yield forming and other processes. The effects of weather, soil, variety and management on cotton growth and development was considered in this model. The model is tested by comparison with field data from variety and density levels at Shache(Yarkant) and statistic lint yield per hectare. The result showed that the trends of simulated total dry matter weight of cotton plant and LAI were consistent with actual, and the agreement index of lint yield in field test at Shache is 0.93 . The biases of simulated mean lint yield of typical location and 5 cotton regions from 1991 to 1996 were -0.3 % and -2.3%, respectively. The model may be useful as a component of assessment system in assessment of effects of climate on cotton production in Xinjiang.