宁夏土地承载力系统动力学方法的应用

APPLIED SYSTEM DYNAMICS ON LAND CAPACITY IN NINXIA

本文从宁夏的实际出发,分别建立了宁北、宁南土地承载力的系统动力学模型,包括土地资源、水资源和种植业、牧业、渔业、人口、消费等7个子系统。相应的环境、科技、投入以及相关的外生变量,共计活性方程1000余个,较细致地体现了宁夏土地承载力的内涵。通过模型的仿真运行及其耦合预测了宁北、宁南及全区未来60年土地承载力数值动态变化趋势。

Basing on the actual situation in Ningxia, the author set up the system dynamics models of the land capacity in the south and the north areas in Ningxia. It inculds seven subsystems which were land resourses, water resourses, planting animal husbandry, fishery, population and comsuption. There were more than 1000 reactive equations in total about environment, science and technique, investment and their interralated external variavles. These equations expressed thoroughly the connotation of the land capacity in Ningxia. The digital trend of the land capacity was foretold by the emulated moving of the models and their coupling about the south, the north and the total areas in 60 years.