太阳10.7cm射电辐射流量预报方法初探

PRIMARY RESEARCH ON PREDICTION METHOD OF 10.7cm SOLAR RADIO FLUX

引进“相似周”方法,通过两种方式对第23周太阳10.7cm辐射流量(E10.7)月均值进行预报和预报试验.由“相似周”方法得到的第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑预测值来预测F10.7月均值和直接采用“相似周”方法对F10.7月均平滑值进行预测.通过对两种预报试验结果分析,得到以下结论. (1)两种预测结果与实际都比较吻合,都得到双峰结构. (2)直接通过相似胤预测的F10.7的月均值结果较间接通过太阳黑子数的预测结果所推断的F10.7预测结果更接近实际观测结果. (3)使用“相似周”预报方法,可以给出F10.7比较精细的剖面结构,这是其他普通预报方法很难做到的.

In this paper, 'Similar Cycle' method is introduced and smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 is predicted in two approaches and then the prediction is tested. In the first one smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers of cycle 23 is obtained by 'Similar Cycle' method and then smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux is predicted according to statistical relationship between sunspot numbers and F10.7 flux. In the second approach the 'Similar Cycle' method is directly applied to predict smoothed monthly mean F10.7 flux of cycle 23 by using historical data of past solar cycles. From the prediction, three results are obtained: 1) Both of these two prediction results are close to observations, both having double. 2) The second prediction is closer to the observation than the first one, which shows that F10.7 flux has similar varing trend with sunspot numbers, but still has its own local varing characters. This can be proved by the second peak of observed F10.7 flux in cycle 23. 3) Using 'Similar Cycle' method, the 'Shape' of F10.7 flux in a solar cycle can be described well, which is difficult to get by other methods.