煤炭需求预测的复合小波神经网络模型

A superposition wavelet-neural network model of coal demand forecast

应用复合小波神经网络模型对煤炭消费年增长率进行了预测 ,综合考虑了国内生产总值(GrossDemesticProduct,简称GDP)年增长率波动 ,主要用煤行业 (电力、冶金、建材、化工等 )的发展趋势 ,以及一次能源消费结构中煤炭消费下降的趋势等各种波动的影响 ,预测模型达到了很高的精度 ,用于近期预测是可靠的 .

Based on the analysis of GDP growth, development of main coal consumption industries (electric power, metallurgy, building materials, chemical engineering,etc.) and the decreasing trend of coal consumption in primary energy consumption, this article gives a forecast of annual increase ratio of coal consumption by using superposition wavelet-neutral network model. This model is of high accuracy and is reliable in short-term forecast.