人民币实际汇率与购买力平价

RMB Actual Rate and Purposing Power Parity

采用扩充迪基-富勒(ADF)方法以及恩格尔-葛兰杰(EG)方法进行单位根检验和EG协整检验,可判别我国实际汇率是否为平稳时间序列,从而推断人民币汇率是否符合购买力平价。研究发现,单位根检验和协整检验的结果均显示人民币实际汇率为非平稳时间序列。在剔除了物价变动和劳动生产率变动因素之后,人民币实际汇率的偏差甚至更大。长期购买力平价之所以无法验证,可能涉及一些深层次的问题,如体制方面的原因。分析表明,人民币汇率低估了。

Taking ADF method and EC mothod to test unit root and test EG harmonization and adjustment can judge that if our country's actual rate was the stable time alignment,and infer that if RMB rate fit purposing power parity.Discovered from research that the results of unit root test and the results of EG harmonization and adjustment also showed that RMB actual rate was the unstable time alignment.After rejecting the factors price fluctuation and labor produvtivity changing,the deviation of RMB actual rate even bigger.Purposing power parity for a longtime could not be adjusted,it touched upon some deep gradational as system problems.The analysis made know that RMB rate was underestimated.