应用“数学模型”预测皮肌炎患者合并恶性肿瘤情况的研究

Predicting the status of patients with dermatomyositis complicated by a malignant tumor by mathematical model

目的 : 建立 1个数学模型 ,预测临床皮肌炎患者合并恶性肿瘤情况。方法 : 2 2例皮肌炎合并恶性肿瘤患者作为一组 ,43例皮肌炎不合并恶性肿瘤患者作为另一组 ,对两组患者的临床及实验室指标进行分析 ,建立判别函数。结果 : 典型皮疹、皮肤异色症、吞咽困难、VCA IgA等 4个指标两组差别具有统计学意义 ,根据 4个指标建立的函数 ,阳性预测值为 61.97% ,阴性预测值为 10 0 % ,预测准确率为86.47%。结论 : 本判别函数数学模型简单 。

Objective:To establish a mathematical model to predict the status of patients with dermatomyositis complicated by malignant tumor. Methods: The dada from 22 patients with dermatomyositis complicated by malignant tumor and 43 patients with dermatomyositis without malignant tumor were analyzed and used to establish a discriminant function.Results: Four factors showed statistically significant difference between these two groups: typical rash, poikioderma, dysphagia and positive VCA-IgA. Fisher's liner discriminant function was set up using these 4 factors. According to this mathematical model, the positive predictive value, negative predictive value and predictive accuracy of dermatomyositis complicated by malignant tumor were 61.97%, 100% and 86.47% , respectively. Conclusion : The mathematical model of discriminant function could predict the status of dermatomyositis complicated by malignant tumor accurately.