水文特性参数的证据统计推断方法

An evidential statistical inference method of hydrologic characteristic parameters

描述水文现象的随机性的概率分布密度函数中的参数作为证据不确定性,在对这些参数根据观测数据用统计方法估计的基础上,用Dempster＿Shafer证据理论的协调性原理对这些不确定参数的真实取值进行推断,确定其真实值在某个可能范围的基本信任度、信任度和不可排除度.推断结果表明,水文特征参数的真实可信值不一定是用统计方法得到的估计值.

The parameters,considered as evidence uncertainty, in the probability density function which describes the stochasticism of hydrologic phenomenon are inferred by the consonance principle in Dempster_Shafer theory of evidence,by which basic belief,belief, and the extent of failure to doubt (pausible extent) of possible ranges in which the true values of the parmeters are fallen, calculated and inferred. The inferred results from a set of observed hydrologic data demonstrate that the true believable values of the parameters need not have been the estimated values by statistical methodology.