黄河流域夏季分区面雨量预报研究

The Long-Range Forecast for the Summer Regional Rainfall in the Yellow River Basin

介绍黄河流域分区夏季面雨量预报的研究成果。精心挑选 51个具有较好代表性的测站对黄河流域夏季降水的时空演变特征进行分析 ,使用 K均值动态聚类对黄河流域的夏季降水进行了客观分区 ,并计算出各流域夏季面雨量。通过对黄河流域夏季面雨量与 50 0 h Pa环流、海温、OL R、中纬阻高、高原积雪、欧亚积雪等重要影响因子的关系分析 ,结合黄河流域夏季面雨量年际和年代际演变特征的分析 ,研究出黄河流域分区夏季面雨量预测的基本方法和模型 ,并通过客观化的数学方法建立黄河流域夏季面雨量预测系统。预测系统十年回报的结果显示出具有较好的预测技巧。

In this paper the research result of the long-range forecast for the Yellow river basin regional rainfall in summer is summarized.On the basis of analyzing the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the summer rainfall of the Yellow river basin,the summer rainfall is classified by the K -mean cluster.The inter-annual and inter-decadal changes of the summer regional rainfall and their relationship are also calculated and analyzed with lots of associated factors,such as the general circulation at 500hPa,SSTA in the east Pacific,OLR over the tropics,the blocking high in mid-latitudes and the snow cover over Eurasia and the Tibetan Plateau,then an objective numerical forecast system is developed for the summer regional rainfall in the Yellow river basin.The ten years hind-cast of the system shows that the system have fairy good skills in regional rainfall forecast.