应用多元回归分析预测中国农村公共卫生补助的总量

Forecasting the Gross of Public Health Subsidy by Using Multiple Regression Analysis in China/

公共卫生作为一种成本效果好的卫生服务手段和卫生系统重要的公共产品,越来越受到各国政府的重视;也日益引起我国政府的关注,成为政府增加卫生投入的重点领域。但是,在中国尚缺乏一种科学合理的测算公共卫生补助总量的方法。本分析以中国农村居民的公共卫生需要为依据,应用多元回归分析筛选影响公共卫生补助总量因素,进一步建立多元回归模型预测公共卫生补助总量,以求作为各级政府确定不同地区农村公共卫生投入量的参考依据。

As public goods in health services, public health is a means to promote health status with low cost and good effectiveness. There are establishing the special committee to research how to fund and allocate public health expenditrues in many countries recent year. Due to the influence of some outdated ideas, the public health subsidies are not allocated according to the public health needs of the population in China rural areas. And there is not a scientific method to measure the total amounts of public health subsidies rationally at national level. In this paper, multiple - regression analysis is used to select the influential factors and predict the total amount of subsidies. The result implies that economic conditions have an important effect on the total subsidies in a given region. And there is a gap between actual amount and ideal subsidy in rural area of China.