山西吉县2010年水土资源承载力预测

Calculation of population carrying capacity based on soil and water resources in Jixian County of Shanxi Province in 2010.

以山西省吉县为研究对象 ,以衡量区域可持续发展的重要指标———区域承载力为研究目标 ,从研究区农业生产的关键性限制因子 (水分、土壤 )入手 ,通过对研究区土地利用现状和水资源现状分析及土地适宜性评价 ,进而采用线性规划法对全县 2 0 10年土地利用进行了规划 .采用常规生产潜力计算方法对研究区主要农作物的不同级别生产潜力分别进行了计算 .在此基础上 ,结合人均消费水平对 2 0 10年吉县水土资源承载力做出了预测 .结果表明 ,到 2 0 10年 ,吉县水土资源承载力可达 1314 71人 .

This paper takes the regional population carrying capacity (a very important symbol to weight the regional sustainable development) as the objective, and focuses on the calculation of population carrying capacity based on soil and water resources of research area (Jixian County,Shanxi Province, North China). The research methods are as follows: 1) From land use/land cover and water resources situation analysis to land use suitability assessment, the land use in 2010 is planned. 2) Using general crops throughput calculation methods, the potential land productivities for research area's main crops are calculated. 3) According to the consumption standard, the population carrying capacity based on local soil and water resources is calculated using linear programming method. It is concluded that the population carrying capacity based on soil and water resources in Jixian County in 2010 is 131 471.