林县食管癌危险因素变化规律的研究

THE STUDY FOR RISK FACTORS AND CHANGING RULE OF ESOPHAGEAL CANCER IN LINXIAN

目的 :研究不同时间点华北食管癌高发区危险因素的变化情况 ,为监测提供依据。方法 :以同一地区不同时间断面 (1985年、1991年和 1997年 )人群为基础的病例对照研究作为研究对象。使用条件和非条件 L ogistic模型分析和 Spearman相关分析。结果 :肉类、蔬菜和饮酒的比例随时间推移而增加 ,酸菜比例下降。 1985年、1991年和 1997年男性吸烟 OR值分别为 0 .9、1.8和 1.0。食管癌家族史 1.7、1.4和 1.9。体型指数 1991年和 1997年为 0 .9、0 .8、0 .7和 0 .4、0 .3、0 .2。按食用频率分层 ,肉类 1.6、1.5、1.0、1.0和 1.2、1.7;新鲜蔬菜 1.5、1.5、1.0、0 .8和 0 .8、0 .7;玉米 1985年、1997年为 1.4、1.3、1.5和 1.0、0 .8、0 .6。结论 :经济条件可以影响食管癌危险因素如饮酒、酸菜等。饮酒可能成为新的危险因素。

Objective:To study the risk factors in the high-risk areas of esophageal cancer in Northern China, explore the changing rules of esophageal cancer and provide scientific evidence for risk factors surveillance.Methods:This study made use of the results from three case-control studies in the same county at three different time frames, which included the studies in 1985, 1991 and 1997. Conditional and Non-conditional Logistic Model and Spearman Relation method were used to analyze the data.Results:The proportions of having meat, fresh vegetable and drinking alcohol increased with time wearing away but pickled vegetable cut it down. The odds ratio (OR) values of male smoking for 85, 91 and 97 studies were 0.9, 1.8 and 1.0 respectively. OR values for family history of esophageal cancer were 1.7, 1.4 and 1.9. Index of body mass (BMI) of 91's were 0.9, 0.8, 0.7and 97's were 0.4, 0.3 and 0.2. Graded by frequency, meat's OR values for the three studies were 1.6, 1.5; 1.0, 1.0; 1.2,1.7. OR values for fresh vegetable were 1.5, 1.5 in 1985,1.0, 0.8 in 991 and 0.8, 0.7 in 1997. Corn OR values were 1.4, 1.3, 1.5 in 1985 and 1.0, 0.8, 0.6 in 1997.Conclusion:The changes of the risk factors, such as alcohol and pickled vegetable implicated certain effects of economic improvement on the pattern of risk factors of esophageal cancer. Alcohol may be a new risk factor in the future.