陕西省人均粮食与人均耕地变化研究

Change of per capita grain and per capita cultivated land in Shaanxi province

对陕西省人均粮食及人均耕地变化进行了时空差异分析,结果表明:(1)近50余年的绝大多数年份为人均粮食占有量的递增期,且不同时段的增幅不同;粮食增长率大于人口增长率的时期,对应人均粮食的增长时期;(2)1978—1998年绝大多数地、市人均粮食递增,且地域差异明显;(3)近50多年来全省耕地面积总体逐年递减,近10年来减少之势加剧;同期人口数量的持续增长,造成人均耕地面积急剧减少.相关回归分析显示:各地、市人均粮食绝对增量与其相对增量之间呈正相关,人均粮食增加量占粮食增量的份额整体偏低;提高粮食生产水平及控制人口是增加全省人均粮食占有量的重要途径.

Based on analyzing the difference of the change the per capita cultivated land and per capita and the owning quantity of the grain on time and space in Shannxi province, it is pointed out that: (1) Near 50 years are the increasing period of the owning quantity of the grain per capita, and the increase of different time is different; The period of the grain increase′s rate is greater than the population increase′s rate, the increasing of the owning quantity of the grain per capita;(2)From 1978 to 1998, corresponding to the owning quantity of the grain per capita increasingly for great majority of prefectures, and its difference between district is obvious;(3) Near 50 years, the cultivated land the whole province gradually decrease year by year, and in the last 10 years there were even more decrease of the cultivated land; The population keep on increasing, resulting in the decrease of the per capita cultivated land area. The relativity analyses show: In the every prefecture, the per capita grain absolute increase with its relative increase is the direct proportion and the per capita grain increment occupying the deal of the grain sum increment is wholly low; To increase the level of the grain production and control the population, are the important approach for increasing the per capita grain. 