2011-2017年甘肃省甘南藏族自治州炭疽时空聚集性分析

Spatiotemporal clustering of anthrax in Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture of Gansu,2011–2017

目的分析甘肃省炭疽重点流行区甘南藏族自治州(甘南州)2011—2017年炭疽发病空间分布特征和空间聚集性。方法采用空间统计学方法,利用2011—2017年甘南州炭疽发病率数据,以乡镇级层面计算其空间分布的全局、局部自相关系数,并分析时空分布特征。结果 2011—2017年甘南州炭疽发病率存在空间相关性,局部自相关分析的发病"热点"区域为玛曲、碌曲、夏河和卓尼县的部分乡镇;空间扫描统计发现炭疽发病存在时空聚集性,高发病率聚集区为玛曲、碌曲和夏河县的25个乡镇,聚集时间为2015—2017年(LLR=260.09,RR=12.91,P<0.001)。结论 2011—2017年炭疽发病存在明显的时空聚集性,玛曲、碌曲和夏河县是炭疽防控重点地区。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and spatial clustering of anthrax in Gannan Tibetan autonomous prefecture of Gansu province from 2011 to 2017.Methods The incidence rate of anthrax in Gannan from 2011 to 2017 was used to calculate the global Moran’s I and local G statistics and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics at township level.Results The spatial correlation in the incidence rate of anthrax was found in Gannan from 2011 to 2017,and the hot spot areas were mainly in some townships of Maqu,Luqu,Xiahe and Zhuoni counties.Spatiotemporal analysis showed that high incidence of anthrax clustered most likely in 25 townships of Maqu,Luqu and Xiahe ciunties during 2015-2017(LLR=260.09,RR=12.91,P<0.001).Conclusion Results from this study indicated that the spatiotemporal clustering of anthrax incidence was obvious during 2011-2017.Maqu,Luqu and Xiahe were the key areas in anthrax prevention and control in Gannan of Gansu.