鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系的研究

Study on monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake eco-economic region

目的构建科学合理、可操作性强的血吸虫病监测预警指标体系,为促进鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病预警系统的科学化与规范化提供参考依据。方法采用专家咨询法(Delphi method)构建指标体系,结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)和改进的比例分配法确定指标权重。通过实证研究对指标体系的信度、效度和权重设置的合理性进行评价。结果鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病监测预警指标体系包括3个一级指标、9个二级指标和35个三级指标。一级指标"疫情现状"、"自然和社会因素"、"防控措施"的归一化权重分别为0. 531 0、0. 101 5和0. 367 5。二级指标中,"人畜感染现状"的组合权重最高(0. 179 5),"社会因素"的组合权重最低(0. 050 6)。实证研究中,总指标体系和一级指标的Cronbachα信度系数及分半信度系数均>0. 90,指标的综合评分与重要程度评分的一致性检验显示Kendall协调系数为0. 742(P=0. 018)。结论监测预警指标体系符合血吸虫病疫情现状,具有良好的信度和效度,权重设置合理。

Objective To establish a scientific,operational monitoring and early warning index system for schistosomiasis,so as to provide scientific evidence for promoting the scientification and standardization of early warning system in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region.Methods Two rounds of Delphi experts’interviews were applied to construct Index system.The weight value of each indicator was determined by the Analytic Hierarchy process and improvable proportionate allocation method.Reliability,validity of index system and the rationality of index weight distribution can be evaluated in site investigation.Results The Index system included 3 first-order indicators,9 second-order indicators,and 35 third-order indicators.The 3 first-order indicators were endemic status,environmental and social factors,control measures,with the weight value of 0.531 0,0.101 5 and 0.367 5,respectively.For the 9 second-order indicators,the highest weight value was for Infection status of human and livestock(0.179 5)and the lowest for social factors(0.050 6).During site investigation,the Cronbach’s alpha and spit half reliability of the total index system and three first-order indicators were all over 0.90,the Kendall W coefficient for the data collected in site investigation and Delphi consultation was 0.742(P=0.018).Conclusions The Monitoring and Early Warning Index System for Schistosomiasis is suitable for the infection status of Poyang Lake Eco-economic region.The reliability and validity of index system are satisfactory,and the indicator weight distribution is rational.