舰船维修费预测方法的模糊多准则决策模型

Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-making Model of Ship Maintenance Cost Forecasting Methods

针对舰船维修费预测方法的评价问题,提出了一种基于模糊群组AHP的多准则决策模型。分析了现有的预测方法评价准则,从精确度、适用性、鲁棒性、预测成本、预测期限和方法复杂性等方面建立了舰船维修费预测的准则体系。引入三角模糊数来处理准则权系数和预测方法评价信息中存在的大量不确定性,采用模糊Delphi法对不同决策者意见进行集结,保留了更多专家意见,使得评价结果更为科学准确。最后,给出了应用算例。该方法能够为舰船维修费预测实践提供有益的参考和借鉴。

To solve the problem that assessment of ship maintenance cost forecasting method,a multi-criteria decisionmaking model is proposed.First,some common assessment criteria are analyzed.Based on that,the criteria system of ship maintenance cost forecasting is established.Second,triangular fuzzy number is introduced to deal with uncertain factors of weight coefficient and assessment information.Then,fuzzy Delphi method is adopted to integrate opinions of the decisionmaker.Finally,apractical example indicates that the method is feasible and effective.