基于贝叶斯理论的建筑结构极值风速预测方法研究

Research on extreme wind speed forecasting method of building structure based on Bayesian theory

建筑结构极值风速预测的研究在结构设计与安全使用领域具有重要意义。基于Bayes理论提出极值风速预测方法,采用Monte Carlo数值模拟方法产生服从极值-I型分布的伪风速母样,基于伪风速母样分别采用基于Bayes理论和最大似然估计理论的极值-I型风速预测方法进行风速预测,并与伪风速母样的理论值进行对比分析。研究结果表明:与最大似然估计法相比,采用基于Bayes理论建立的极值-I型风速预测模型进行风速预测的精度更高。

The investigation of wind speed forecast of extreme value type distribution has a great significance for the building structural design and use. The wind speed forecast method of extreme value type distribution were constructed,and Monte Carlo simulation method is used to produce the pseudo wind speed samples. The maximum likelihood parameter estimation method and Bayes statistical theory were used to estimate the wind forecast value of the extreme value type I distribution,which has been done by comparing with the theoretical extreme value type I distribution of the pseudo wind speed. The result indicates that the wind speed forecast model of extreme value type I distribution based on Bayes theory is optimal than the maximum likelihood estimation.