混沌理论的舰船事故预测

Prediction of ship accident based on chaotic theory

舰船事故的预测具有十分重要的价值,针对舰船事故变化的混沌性,为了解决当前舰船事故预测模型存在的局限性,提出了基于混沌理论的舰船事故预测模型,首先对当前舰船事故预测的研究现状进行分析,指出引起舰船事故预测精度低的原因,然后引入混沌理论建立舰船事故预测的学习样本,并采用最小二乘支持向量机建立舰船事故预测模型,最后通过采用舰船事故预测数据对模型性能进行分析,本文模型的舰船事故预测精度超过95%,而且舰船事故预测误差很低。

ship accident prediction has very important value. In order to solve the limitation of the current ship accident prediction model, the ship accident prediction model based on chaos theory is put forward. Firstly, the current research situation of ship accident prediction is analyzed, the reasons for the low accuracy of ship accident prediction are pointed out, and the study sample of ship accident prediction is built up by chaos theory. Finally, the ship accident prediction model is analyzed by using the least square support vector machine. The accuracy of ship accident prediction is over 95 %, and the error of ship accident prediction is very lower.