基于模糊综合评判的船舶搁浅风险预测

Risk prediction of ship grounding based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

为了提高船舶搁浅风险预测准确性,针对当前船舶搁浅风险预测方法存在一些难题,设计了基于模糊综合评判的船舶搁浅风险预测方法。首先对船舶搁浅风险预测现状进行分析,并建立船舶搁浅风险预测指标,然后采用模糊综合评判确定船舶搁浅风险预测指标权重,建立船舶搁浅风险预测模型,最后进行船舶搁浅风险预测仿真测试。结果表明,本文方法可以合理设置船舶搁浅风险预测指标的权重,可以描述每一种指标对船舶搁浅风险预测结果影响的程度,获得高精度的船舶搁浅风险预测结果,误差小于当前其他船舶搁浅风险预测方法。

In order to improve the accuracy of ship grounding risk prediction, the prediction method of ship grounding risk based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is designed to solve some difficult problems in the current prediction method of ship grounding risk. First, the ship grounding risk prediction status is analyzed, and the prediction index of ship grounding risk is set up. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the weight value of the prediction index of the ship grounding risk to establish the prediction model of the ship grounding risk, and finally the prediction simulation test of the ship grounding risk is carried out. The results show that this method can reasonably set the weight value of the prediction index of the ship grounding risk, may describe the extent of the impact of each index on the prediction results of the ship grounding risk, and obtain the high precision prediction results of the ship grounding risk, and the error is less than the other methods of prediction of the current ship grounding risk.