实船运动与包络的极短期预报分析

Research on extremely short-term prediction of real ship motion and envelope

舰船运动及包络的实时预报可以为舰载机起降、船舶减摇、海上锚泊并靠物资补给、动力定位等提供辅助指导意见。本文利用某实船的升沉、纵摇与横摇数据,建立运动和包络的2阶自适应Volterra级数模型,通过RLS算法估计Volterra级数模型的核,统计了不同工况下的运动预报精度。分析结果表明,Volterra级数模型可以用来辨识船舶运动系统,纵摇与升沉预报精度较好,运动预报可以与包络预报相结合共同指导工程作业。

The real-time prediction of ship motion and envelope can provide auxiliary decision-making guidance for some engineering operations.In this paper,the heave,pitch and roll data of a real ship was applied to build the second order Volterra adaptive prediction model.The kernel of Volterra series model was estimated by RLS algorithm.The accuracy of motion prediction was counted in different working condition.Analysis results showed that the Volterra adaptive model can describe the ship motion system.The prediction of pitch and heave was good.The motion and envelope prediction can be combined to give guidance to some engineering operations.