分类要素贡献和中国经济增长动力再检验

Category Factor Contribution and China’s Economic Growth Power Retest

当前中国经济步入'新常态',经济结构性减速诱使我国可能存在步入'中等收入陷阱'的危险,有必要审视生产要素和结构贡献及经济增长效率问题。基于此,本文从不同维度考察我国经济增长的动力机制,并以全要素生产率表征经济增长效率,结合马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型,测度不同区制下结构和体制因素的经济效率动力机制。结果发现:生产要素始终是我国经济增长的主要动力,不同维度经济结构对经济增长作用差异明显,是政府而非市场主导经济增长的特征明显;不同时期、不同类型要素对经济增长作用差异明显,尤其是技术进步正向促进作用与市场化影响不断显现;不同层次的经济系统显示出双区制特征,经济维持在'低增长区制'与'高增长区制'的概率大致相同,而不同类型要素和结构对经济增长效率影响也存在差别。这些结果表明,我国经济增长存在周期性和阶段性特征。

At present,China’s economy is entering the new normal,and the risk of entering the middle-income trap may exist when the economic structural slow down.Therefore,it is necessary to examine the factors and structural contribution and the efficiency of economic growth.Based on this,this paper investigates the dynamic mechanism of China’s economic growth from different dimensions,and characterizes the efficiency of economic growth with the total factor productivity,and measures the economic efficiency dynamic mechanism of structure and institutional factors under different regional systems by combining the markov system transfer vector autoregressive model.The results showed:Factors of production have always been the main driving force of China’s economic growth.Different economic structures have different effects on economic growth,and the government,rather than the market,has obvious characteristics of economic growth.The effects of different types of factors on economic growth in different periods are obviously different,especially the positive promoting effect of technological progress and the marketization effect.The economic system of the same level shows the characteristics of the two-region system.The probability of maintaining the economy in the'low growth region system'and'high growth region system'is roughly the same,while the influence of different types of elements and structures on the efficiency of economic is also different.These results indicate that China’s economic growth has cyclical and phasic characteristics.