对人民币汇率变动轨迹的实证分析

On the Demonstration of the Alteration track of the RMB Exchange Rate

本文首先将人民币汇率作为内生变量,对其影响因素做了实证分析;然后将人民币汇率作为外生变量;对其可以影响的变量做了实证分析。本文通过数量分析后认为;自1985年以来,中国的货币量和GDP一起影响价格;国家有关当局根据价格变动调整人民币利率,人民币汇率变动起到了促进出口、抑制进口的作用。同时,本文得出了各变量之间的数量规律。

This article, firstly, assumes RMB endogenous varable to analyze its influence factors, secondly, it assumes RMB exogenous variable to analyze its effect on other. Through quantitative analysis, we show since 1985, the quantity of Chinese Money and GDP affected the price together with the government adjusted RMB exchange rate is promoting the export and restraining the import. Meanwhile, the article got the quantitative regulars between every variable.