突发疫情对畜禽产品价格冲击效应研究

Study on the Impact of Sudden Epidemic on the Price of Livestock and Poultry Products

突发疫情会对畜禽类等产品的供求产生影响,进而影响相关产品的价格。基于突发事件的冲击波效应(ESW)模型,本文实证研究了突发疫情的直接价格效应和间接价格效应。研究结果发现,无论是从冲击效应,还是从冲击深度、冲击广度上看,突发疫情都对产品的价格产生冲击,也会对相关产品价格有影响。基于脉冲响应分析突发疫情价格冲击的持续时间,结果发现突发疫情的冲击持续时间较短,其后逐步恢复其价格运行规律。研究结论具有一定的政策含义,既要重视突发疫情对畜禽类产品价格的短期冲击,降低对消费者和生产者的影响,又要关注产业运行规律,科学合理规划其产业的发展。

The sudden epidemic will affect the supply and demand of products such as livestock and poultry, which will affect the price of related products. Based on the ESW model, the direct price effect and the indirect price effect of the sudden epidemic were empirically studied. The research found that whether it is from the impact effect, or from the impact depth and the impact breadth, the sudden epidemic has an impact on the product price, and have an impact on the relevant product price also. Based on the impulse response, the duration of the price shock of the sudden epidemic was analyzed. It was found that the impact of the sudden epidemic was short, and then the price operation law was gradually restored. The conclusion of the study has certain policy implications. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term impact of sudden epidemics on the prices of livestock and poultry products, reduce the impact on consumers and producers, and pay attention to the law of industrial operation.