国际干散货航运市场发展及BDI指数预测研究——基于联立方程模型的分析

International Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply and Demand and BDI Index Forecasting Research——Based on the analysis of simultaneous equation models

本文通过对国际干散货航运市场的供需平衡及发展具有重要影响的主要市场指标进行阐述,基于联立方程模型,推演预测了未来国际干散货航运市场供需情况及年度BDI指数的走向趋势。结合实际市场波动率水平对预测结果赋予波动率调整因子,在船舶运力供需方面就预测结果与实际市场运力情况进行可行性验证,最后对预测结果进行调节,以取得既符合市场预期,又符合市场条件的预测结果。

This paper first elaborates on the main market indicators that have an important impact on the balance of supply and demand in the international dry bulk shipping market, and thenthe projections predict the future supply and demand of the international dry bulk shipping market and the trend of the annual BDI index based on the simultaneous equation model. Combined with the actual market volatility level, the volatility adjustment factor is assigned to the forecast results, and the feasibility of the forecast results and the actual market capacity is verified in terms of ship supply and demand.Finally, the forecast results are adjusted to obtain forecast results that are both in line with market expectations and market conditions.