我国猪肉价格趋势变动及其预测——基于Elman神经网络模型的分析

Pork Price Trend Fluctuation and Its Forecast in China——Analysis Based on Elman Neural Network Model

本文运用Elman神经网络模型,对我国猪肉月度价格的波动特征及预测进行实证研究。结果表明,2005年1月至2018年3月,猪肉月度价格波动可分为四个阶段,主要受到养殖成本、重大自然灾害事件、替代品价格等因素的影响。预测2018年下半年价格将较为稳定,总体呈缓慢上升趋势。研究认为,ENN模型的预测精度更高,更适合猪肉月度价格的预测与预警研究,建议加强对猪肉价格波动的关注度、严厉打击猪肉市场的不法行为、重视养殖成本和猪肉供应因素对猪肉价格的影响。

Based on Elman neural network model and 159 groups of monthly pork price data from January 2005 to March 2018, this paper makes an empirical study on the fluctuation characteristics and prediction of monthly pork price in China. The results showed that the monthly price fluctuation of pork from January 2005 to March 2018 could be divided into four stages, which were mainly affected by factors such as breeding costs, major natural disastersand substitute prices and so on. It is predicted that prices will be relatively stable in the coming October, showing a slow upward trend as a whole. The study shows that the ENN model has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for forecasting and early warning of pork monthly price. It is suggested that we should pay more attention to the fluctuation of pork prices, severely crack down on the breach of law in the pork market, and we should pay more attention to the cost of raising livestock and pork supply factors. We should think highly of the influence of pig to grain ratio,piglets, live pigs to be slaughtered and pork with bones removed and wheat bran on the price of pork.