摘要
'交易量大、价格波动大'是鲜切花节日交易的长期规律。处于信息劣势的花农若不能掌握鲜切花的交易规律,则会丧失高收益的交易时机。本文通过分析节日前后昆明国际花卉交易中心交易量最大的玫瑰、满天星、非洲菊三种鲜切花收益率的波动情况,发现拍市鲜切花节日交易规律:(1)节前收益率呈先升后降的倒'U'型变化,节前4-5天是高收益期,节前1-2天是低收益期;(2)节日前后效应截然相反,节前效应显著为正,节后效应为负;(3)节日之间效应差异较大,七夕节对玫瑰和满天星的价格拉动作用显著大于2·14和5·20,国庆节对非洲菊的价格拉动作用显著大于重阳节和清明节。基于上述研究结论,本文从信息化建设、产品组合发展、交易及物流模式创新等方面提出促进云南鲜切花产业发展的建议。
'The large volume of transactions and large price fluctuations'is the long-term law of fresh-cut flower festival transactions. If flower farmers who are in information disadvantages cannot grasp the trading rules of fresh-cut flowers, they will lose high-yield trading opportunities. By analyzing the fluctuations of the three fresh cut flower yields of roses, gypsophila and gerbera before and after the festival, this paper basically determines the trading rules:(1) pre-holiday yield The 'U'type change of the first rise and then fall, the high-yield period is 4-5 days before the festival, and the low-yield period is 1-2 days before the festival;(2) The pre-holiday effect is significantly positive and the post-holiday effect is negative;(3) The price of the Qixi Festival on Rose and Gypsophila is significantly greater than that of 2·14 and 5.20, and the national holiday has a significant effect on the price of gerbera. More than the Double Ninth Festival and the Ching Ming Festival. Based on the above conclusions, the article proposes that information construction, product portfolio development and transaction and logistics model innovation.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第4期71-74,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金地区项目(71562035)“花卉低碳冷链物流系统的构建与绩效研究”
云南大学教育部部省合建重点项目(C176280113)“云南高原特色经济作物产业发展政策创新研究”子项目
